Attention to Unrealised Chinese Projects May Overstate China's Arctic Influence

"One of the first questions my Norwegian friends ask me when they hear about the project is whether Norwegian politicians are too naive when it comes to China."

That is according to Ahad Hadian, a PhD researcher at the High North Center at Nord University, tells High North News.

Hadian has examined how Norwegian authorities balanced cooperation and security with China between 2000 and 2024. He believes the increased security focus in Norway’s China policy is important for raising public awareness, while also warning against overreacting.

"Norwegian politicians make smart choices to protect national interests. Norway distinguishes between different sectors, giving the green light to trade in less critical areas while blocking and continuously monitoring the more critical sectors."

"This demonstrates control, not naivety," he states.

In a new policy brief, Hadian points out that announced Chinese projects often receive more attention in Arctic debates than their actual implementation.

Misconceptions about Chinese influence

In the policy brief, Hadian notes that NATO warned in 2022 that China was investing "tens of billions of dollars in the Arctic". However, a study published last year found that many of these projects were never implemented.

Projects such as Arctic Connect, a subsea communication cable between Asia and Europe, and plans to build an airport in Greenland, both of which involved China, ultimately came to a halt.

Although the plans were not realised, these projects generate media headlines that do not always reflect China’s presence in the Arctic, he argues.

"This can create a perception of Chinese influence that does not necessarily correspond to what is actually happening, making it important to assess both intentions and outcomes."

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He believes Europe needs a comparative risk framework that assesses actual behaviour, capacity, and implementation, rather than assumptions based on nationality or unrealised plans.

"The challenge for Europe is not only whether China is present in the Arctic, but also how to respond to this presence in a way that protects European interests while avoiding political decisions based on incomplete information."

Better evidence leads to better policy

In the brief, Hadian outlines three suggestions for the EU and European Arctic states:

First, he recommends establishing a "shared project register of Chinese activity in the Arctic that clearly distinguishes between proposed, paused, cancelled and completed projects", as a way of gaining a better understanding of China in the Arctic.

Second, he proposes using a template for risk assessments of critical infrastructure and research collaboration.

Finally, he suggests using the EU's upcoming Arctic policy review in 2026 to connect Arctic policy with economic security, research security and digital sovereignty.

He emphasises that better evidence leads to better policy, and that the Arctic is increasingly shaped by the interplay between security, economics, technology, and scientific cooperation.

"Understanding China's role requires viewing these dimensions together, rather than through a purely geopolitical perspective. Independent research can track projects over time and check what actually happened. Such knowledge is crucial if Europe wants policies based on evidence rather than headlines," Hadian concludes.

High North News is an independent online newspaper published by the High North Center at Nord University. High North News follows the Norwegian Code of Ethics for the Press and is edited in accordance with the principles of the Norwegian Editors' Association.