“A Good Deal of Talk, But Considerably Less Action”

"There is a good deal of talk, but considerably less action."

This is how Norway's ambassador to Russia, Heidi Olufsen, describes developments in Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the extensive Western sanctions that followed, Russia has sought closer ties with China.

This has made China an increasingly important partner in Russia's efforts to advance its ambitions in the High North.

"Russia remains very clear that the Arctic is a priority area, both in terms of military strategy and the economically," Olufsen explains.

Slow progress

Natural resources, energy, rare minerals and the Northern Sea Route are central to Russia's plans for the region. These projects require substantial investment, making Chinese cooperation particularly attractive to Russia.

"For Russia, China is an important strategic partner, and China is clearly more important to Russia than the other way around."

China has its own interests in the Arctic, and the two countries are in dialogue and have several cooperation agreements. Nevertheless, Olufsen believes that, for the time being, the outcome of the cooperation has been limited.

"My impression is that, in reality, developments are proceeding much more slowly than Russia might wish when it comes to Chinese investments."

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Preserve the Arctic Council

Russia, as the world's largest Arctic state, also wishes to maintain the Arctic Council as a key forum for cooperation in the North, according to Olufsen.

"It is very clear that Russia wants the Arctic Council to continue as an important organisation for the Arctic."

The Council brings together the eight Arctic states and has been an important forum for cooperation on, among other things, the environment, research, emergency preparedness and developments in the High North.

Since the war began, however, political cooperation has been significantly reduced. Contact continues at working level, but to a far lesser extent than before.

"The situation in the Arctic Council is completely different now than before the war, because there are no meetings at political level. Even though it's not "business as usual", some contact is maintained in the working groups - mostly through digital meetings. In a way, cooperation is running at a low flame," Olufsen explains.

Balance contact and security

For Norway, today's Russia policy is about maintaining necessary contact with a neighbouring state that simultaneously represents a major security challenge.

"We have limited official contact, but the dialogue we do have with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian ambassador is professional, orderly and factual," she emphasises.

Olufsen served as Consul General at Norway's consulate in St. Petersburg when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Those experiences have been highly valuable in her current work.

"The situation now is much worse. But I believe that the experience of having worked there, that I speak the language, know the country and have a genuine interest in Russia, makes me more resilient in the demanding situation we are in now."

At the same time, the diplomatic role has changed fundamentally since then.

"My job is no longer about strengthening cooperation with Russia, but about wearing a security policy "hat", where we, together with allies, support Ukraine. And we must balance that with the fact that we are a neighbouring country.

"Very tired of the war"

Olufsen also describes a Russian population increasingly affected by the consequences of the war in everyday life.

"Although the Russian regime has been adept at maintaining a kind of normality, so that people in the big cities haven't had to relate to the war to any great extent, it is beginning to have a greater impact on people's everyday lives."

"My clear impression is that people are very tired of the war."

Sanctions, rising prices and inflation are among the factors making the war more noticeable for Russians. Drones have become more common, airports are forced to close, and fuel queues are growing.

Olufsen also points to tighter state control over society.

"It increasingly affects everyday life; people cannot travel the way they used to. There is no doubt that there is widespread war fatigue and that people want the war to end, although there are differing opinions on how this should happen and who is to blame," she concludes.