Arctic Diplomacy, Defence and a Warming Paradox

As I write this newsletter from the safety of the harbor town Gdansk in Polen, Polish authorities have closed the air space on the Ukrainian border due to Russian attacks on the neighboring country. The actions are preventive and nearly a daily occurrence in the country that was occupied and controlled by Soviet until the cold war ended, now bordering both Ukraine and Russia.

I am here to participate in the brand news Breakwater Festival, the very first international forum and festival uniting journalists, editors, and media innovators from Poland, the Nordics, the Baltic region, and Eastern Europe.

We need that unity now, more than ever. More of that to come.

Let’s start in another region bordering to Russia; the Norwegian Arctic where sanctions against Russia hit the business community hard. Still, the Norwegian government is not considering new compensation schemes.

Diplomacy triumphs

Diplomacy matters. The agreement between Denmark/Greenland and the United States is worth far more than the paper it is written on, says commentator Arne O. Holm.

“Even for an agreement that broadly merely confirms the status quo, it is a diplomatic victory over the American gangster mentality.”

The Arctic Council is also proof of that. As the AC is no longer in their twenties, a new special podcast episode looks back at the Arctic Council’s history, cooperation through turbulent times through 30 years, and the way forward in a geopolitical Arctic.

Russia and defense

A new U.S. sanctions law could disrupt Russia’s Yamal LNG trade with Europe months before the European Union’s own import ban takes effect, potentially reaching beyond Novatek to shipowners, insurers, terminals, and buyers. 

And last week, Holm and journalist Astri Edvardsen attended the Fridtjof Nansen Institute’s Arctic security conference.

"For the first time in the Arctic security debate, hybrid threats at sea are identified as the greatest challenge", says Andreas Østhagen, research director at FNI.

“Outside the meeting room I reflect on how easily we describe a world at war”, Holm writes in a comment after the conference.

I will end this week’s newsletter with some surprising news and a teaser:

New research suggests that a warmer Arctic can make it more difficult for ships to navigate, than the other way around.

And right now, journalist Hilde Bye is visiting the world’s largest naval base and home to NATOs Arctic headquarters in Virginia USA. So, stay tuned!