NATO chief: Greenland Crisis Never Neared Confrontation

In a short time, the Arctic has gone from being a "blank spot on the map", as one Greenlandic politician put it, to becoming a geopolitically contested region, attracting increasing attention from the United States, Russia, China, and Europe; actors that all have different interests and priorities.

The European Union just launched its new Arctic strategy, a framework for political cooperation that places security, climate change, economic prosperity, and local communities at the center, allowing the union to play a more prominent role in shaping the future of the Arctic.

The transformation of the region, towards a warmer climate and a position at the center of the great powers’ attention, is part of a broader shift in the global strategic landscape.

Adapt fast

And as the climate for cooperation shifted, and the phrase "High North, low tension" became less relevant, NATO, which was relatively new to the Arctic, had to follow suit and adapt quickly.

In the words of Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee:

"Credible deterrence in the Arctic depends on our ability to understand and be prepared to act together. Changes in the Arctic may create challenges, and we must adapt quickly and turn these challenges into opportunities."

New geopolitics

As one of the keynote speakers at this year’s Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik, Iceland, Dragone participated in several discussions regarding the new geopolitical situation in the Arctic.

The Italian officer seemed keenly aware of the gravity of the situation, yet with a smile hovering behind his handlebar moustache, he offered insight into the alliance’s shift toward the north and the recent USA-Greenland crisis. According to the Admiral, the future of the alliance lies in the ability to adapt.

“Strategic superiority does not belong to those with the best plan or the greatest resources. Strategic superiority belongs to those capable of adapting quickly.”

The admiral calls it “the logic of antifragility.”

Not alone

"It is not enough merely to withstand shocks. We must use crises to become stronger. Throughout its history, NATO has shown that the organization can transform crises into opportunities for learning and growth," he says.

He recounts how he personally witnessed the Greenland crisis become a concrete example of this theory.

"The tension that emerged in recent months has—from NATO’s perspective—been placed within a broader framework: security in the Arctic and the High North."

A task that cannot be handled alone. Hence, the Arctic Sentry.

Arctic Sentry

"This year, the Arctic has become even more clearly integrated into the alliance’s broader security landscape. NATO’s responsibility is, quite simply, to deter and, if necessary, defend allied territory. In the Arctic, an environment that is both complex and challenging, we rely on integration," explains Dragone, and continues:

"Situational awareness is the starting point. We need a shared understanding of what is happening across the maritime, air, land, cyber, and space domains, and we must share this rapidly within the Alliance."

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This is the purpose of Arctic Centry, the multi-domain military mission launched by NATO in February to strengthen the alliance's presence, surveillance, and security posture in the Arctic and High North. To bring together NATO and allied activities under one operational approach, led by Joint Force Command Norfolk in Virginia, USA.

“But awareness must lead to action.”

By "action," he means integrating national capabilities, preparedness, command and control, and interoperability into a cohesive, allied framework. Regarding the Greenland conflict, the admiral was also aware that time was short.

USA-Greenland crisis

"The time required to develop credible capabilities has become an operational dimension of deterrence. Our task in NATO is to integrate this national expertise and these capabilities into a collective force. This is where our allies in the Arctic contribute vital experience regarding the environment, the vast distances, and the operational challenges," he explains.

While NATO worked to get its Arctic ducks in a row, the United States, Denmark, and Greenland initiated negotiations that, in September, resulted in a renewed defense agreement, an agreement that has not yet been ratified by Greenland and Denmark.

The agreement underscores the importance of cooperation in the Arctic and the North Atlantic, while strengthening the framework for addressing security issues collectively, with NATO playing a central role. It was considered a victory for Greenland.

Never close

Just a month before, in January, the world watched in disbelief as NATO allies sent soldiers to Greenland to make a potential invasion politically costly, and as a deterrent against the United States invading Greenland. The operation was named "Operation Arctic Endurance."

Greenlandic politician Aaja Chemnitz says she was glad to see NATO soldiers in the streets, as the population genuinely feared war.

“Admiral, how close did you come to an actual confrontation when it happened?”

“Honestly, not even close,” Dragone assures, his gaze steady, after having joked that he would “exercise his right to remain silent.

Behind closed doors

He then shares, with great candor, insights from the alliance’s inner circle, or “the round table,” if you will. Like a modern version of King Arthur’s knights.

“Whenever something colorful or dramatic emerges, the Military Committee convenes. All the Chiefs of Defence gather around a round table. We close the door and discuss the matter. In this instance, there was never any question of any form of confrontation, beyond statements, which belong to the political realm.”

Dragone also reminds us that the alliance’s role is only one part of the larger picture. Security must go hand in hand with respect for Greenlandic society and its way of life, including the traditions and activities that are central to local communities.

"We must never forget that the Arctic is, first and foremost, home to communities that have lived here for generations. Their experiences must be at the heart of how we think about the future of the Arctic. For NATO, our responsibility remains focused on deterrence and defense, but our contribution should also help create a secure environment in which Arctic communities can flourish and cooperation can continue. This is the opportunity before us," he says.

"We still have time to shape the future of the Arctic."