Norwegian Intelligence's Threat Assessment: “The Same Dynamic is Evident in the Arctic”

"Global security is more strained than it was at the start of 2025. Great powers are openly pursuing their own interests for rapid gain. We are seeing the return of spheres of influence and a form of politics in which might makes right."

This is how the Director of the Norwegian Intelligence Service, Vice Admiral Nils Andreas Stensønes, describes the overall situation in his introduction to Focus 2026, the Intelligence Service's unclassified threat assessment, presented on Friday.

"International cooperation and institutions are being undermined. The same dynamic is evident in the Arctic. Much of the foundation for Norwegian security is being challenged, and we must accept that the world order as we have known it is crumbling."

The return of 'spheres of influence'

Similar to recent years' assessments, the focus is on Russia and China, which are identified as the biggest threats against Norwegian security interests.

And for the two countries, the development outlined above is welcomed, emphasizes the chief of the Intelligence Service.

Among the larger upheaval Norway now faces includes the return of spheres of influence. Russia and China are seeking a geopolitical division into spheres of influence and the ushering in of a multipolar world, the Focus report states. 

Seeing opportunities

"The international institutions established after World War II are weakening, and this shakes the foundation of Norwegian security," elaborated Stensønes during a joint press conference on Friday.

"The biggest change in the past year has occurred with our ally, the USA. And Washington's conduct is significant in terms of how threat actors like Russia and China think and act," he continued.

"They see great opportunities to strengthen their influence and ensure control in their immediate areas. Both Russia and China will employ all measures available to the state below the threshold of war to weaken us in the West. The two countries have an extensive cooperation, but are still completely different actors."

Furthermore, the report asseses that overt self-interest and wilful conduct are on display in the Arctic as well. 

"Moscow and Beijing are paying close attention to Washington’s statements regarding Greenland," it states. 

"On the one hand, changes to the status quo are a source of concern. On the other, transatlantic disagreement over the security situation in the Arctic could serve both Russian and Chinese interests," it continues.

The Intelligence Service also assesses that changing the status quo in the Arctic carries a risk of both Russia and China rethinking their ambitions and conduct in the region.

"No such signs directed at Norway"

In response to NRK's question about why the Norwegian Intelligence Service's assessment barely mentions the relationship between the US and Europe, and does not address US foreign policy, as the Danish Intelligence Service recently did, Vice Admiral Stensønes commented as follows:

"There is a significant difference between Denmark and Norway. President Trump's rhetorics is directed at Greenland, a part of the Kingdom of Denmark. We see no such signs directed at Norway," replied Stensønes.

"We do say that Washington's conduct affects how threat actors such as Russia and China think and act. Additionally, it creates significant uncertainty in European capitals," he added.

"Russia poses the greatest threat"

Norway's Minister of Defense, Tore O. Sandvik (Labor), was also present during the press conference, and underscored the threat posed by Russia and China.

At the same time, he commented on the US president's statements to take over Greenland and the uncertainty this has created.

"We cannot deny that the trans-Atlantic relationship has become more unpredictable," said Sandvik.

"At the same time, I believe we must separate the political challenge that entails from the threat Norway is facing, namely, Russia and China. Russia poses the greatest threat to Norwegian and allied security. The war in Ukraine is a clear and brutal expression of Russian use of force," he added.

Military rearmament in Norway's immediate areas

The Intelligence Service underscores that the Russian Arctic remains important for the regime's military and economic ambitions, as well as for Russian deterrence.

"National development projects, such as investments in the Barents Sea region and along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), are intended to bolster Russian presence and activity in the region."

"While war is raging in Ukraine, the Kremlin has sought to keep the Arctic apart from its confrontation with the West. However, the regime still believes that conflicting interests between itself and other actors could cause the situation to deteriorate and threaten Russian interests," the report states.

Stensønes elaborated that Norway will still be part of the Russian enemy landscape, no matter the outcome of the Ukraine War.

"The Kremlin is planning for a lasting confrontation with the West, including Norway. We see this clearly in Russia's plans to expand its land power in the Norwegian immediate areas. It is to be built up to be able to conduct a regional war. The units are established while they are waging war on Ukrainian soil, but are to return to Norwegian immediate areas," he explained.

"In addition, the Northern Fleet is receiving new advanced weapons, and this will strengthen Russia's ability to target objectives throughout Europe. In short, Norway and NATO must plan for a different Russian war machine than the one we have known."

The Chief of the Intelligence Service is nonetheless clear on how Russian activity in Norwegian immediate areas is of a professional conduct.

"Russia is still concerned with stability in the High North to ensure the development of the energy sector, the Northern Sea Route, and its strategic weapons. But Russia will always weigh the need for stability against the perceived need for deterrence against NATO. In combination with weaknesses and wear in the Russian military, this poses a risk of misunderstandings and unintended incidents. "