Trump is Discussed at Every Coffee Table, but not at the Intelligence Service

It is entirely appropriate that the Arctic is given more attention than ever before. Anything else would be disquieting.

The odd thing is that this is not considered within the context of the US president's antics over the past six months. The Norwegian Intelligence Service is becoming increasingly alone in not making such a direct connection a main point.

Around the dinner table

The FOKUS reports are the Intelligence Service's annual report "on external threats to Norway and prioritized Norwegian interests" intended to "support political decision-making processes with information of special interest for Norwegian foreign, security, and defense policy".

In other words, what is discussed daily around every single cafe or dinner table.

So, I must be quick to say that this is the unclassified part, that is, what is publicly available to you and me. The question that remains is why the Intelligence Service is withholding so much obvious information, information that everyone outside the service is aware of.

That includes other countries' intelligence agencies. 

Like before Christmas, when the Danish Intelligence Service explicitly stated in its corresponding report that the USA is a threat to Europe. 

"There is uncertainty about the US' role as a guarantor for Europe's security," I quoted from the report in a comment in December last year.

The report strongly focused on the challenges in the Arctic.

The Norwegian Intelligence Service does the same in this year's edition. This time, they have included a separate chapter titled "Russia and China as Arctic Actors."

In dissolution

The Chief of the Norwegian Intelligence Service, Nils Andreas Stensønes, emphasizes already in his foreword, the gravity of what is happening in the Arctic. He points to the threat from Russia and China as the service "must realize that the world order as we knew it is disintegrating," and rightly so.

The Danish Intelligence Service has already pointed out the obvious; that this also includes the US and Donald Trump.

Yesterday, a new report was published, this time as a prelude to the annual Munich Security Conference. From Norway, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg, Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, and Defense Minister Tore Sandvik will be participating.

That tells us something about the significance of the conference.

The documents, published just under a week before the conference, illustrate how differently the world appears, at least officially, in Norway compared with an increasingly more oppositional Europe. That is illustrated already in the foreword of the Munich Security Report:

The documents, which are published just under a week before the conference opens, illustrate how different the world, at least officially, looks from Norway compared to an increasingly oppositional Europe. The point is illustrated already in the foreword to the "Munich Security report":

Former Arctic Politicians Riddle the Epstein Files

Comment (Tromsø, Northern Norway): For the better part of a week, the Arctic and the High North were scheduled to 'dominate' national and international news. Instead, former Arctic politicians riddled the archives of the convicted predator Jeffrey Epstein.

"Given the significance of this recalibration of US foreign policy, we decided that this year’s Munich Security Report should address the elephant in the room head-on. Many of the other challenges on the Wolfgang Ischinger 6 MUNICH SECURITY REPORT 2026 agenda – from Europe’s security architecture to the key principles of international law to trade and technology – are closely linked to the United States’ evolving view of the international order."

An important addition

While Norwegian intelligence points out how China and Russia threaten the international world order, this report has a crucial and important addition:

"The most powerful of those who take the axe to existing rules and institutions is US President Donald Trump."

The Norwegian Intelligence Service reports to the Chief of Defense, just as the Danish reports to the Armed Forces.

The Munich Security Conference is more independent but is preparing to welcome the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with a number of members of the US Congress. The preparation includes a clear and important confrontation with the US's trade and foreign policy.

Large parts of the Norwegian intelligence report deal with influence operations from Russia and China. About hybrid warfare. Precisely for this reason, the official message must not only be accurate but also recognizable.

We are in a situation that demands a lot from us living in the North.

However, it also places considerable demands on the Intelligence Service, which is entirely dependent on its credibility.

If the impression takes hold that the blind spots are politically motivated, we are all struggling.