Standing in the Storm. The Arctic Council Still Has a Future.

We can rightly say that the eyes of the world are turned to the North at the start of this year’s Arctic Frontiers. This year, it is not climate change that arouses curiosity, but an unruly man who leads the world’s most powerful country. 

In the middle of the storm stands the world’s largest island, Greenland, which also leads the work of the Arctic Council. This cooperation arena has navigated rough seas in the past; however, the tsunami that now hits it requires necks to be covered in order to face the storm while well-dressed and united. The Arctic Council celebrates its 30th anniversary this year, and the celebration starts this week in Tromsø. 

The idea that international cooperation in the North must continue despite geopolitical crises and international cooperation being under pressure is a central message of this event.

Much has been said about why Donald Trump wants Greenland. The region is geostrategically important and rich in resources, and there are Russians and Chinese everywhere. The list of analyses contradicting the premises of Trump’s reasoning is long. We can briefly summarise these arguments as follows: To put it mildly, the geostrategic importance of Greenland is debatable. 

This is evident, for example, in the fact that the United States currently has only one base in Greenland, whereas at its peak during the Cold War, the country had 27 bases located in the region. Second, Russians and Chinese are not everywhere. Chinese investments have been scarce and not particularly successful, while Russia is likely focusing elsewhere now. 

There is also a long canvas to whitewash when it comes to the possibilities of exploiting critical minerals, with keywords including infrastructure, harsh climatic conditions, environmental challenges and markets. A Klondike in Greenland is a long way off.

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- The Arctic Council is irreplaceable

How can we explain this obsession? There are three possible reasons: i) First, Trump has bad advisers who lead him to believe he has free rein to exploit resources, that the process is relatively easy and that there is big money in it. Furthermore, he believes that China and Russia are everywhere – in truth, they are not. 

Why should they be? ii) Second, Trump’s classic ambitions to increase territory are driven by a huge ego and a desire to be remembered as the man who made the United States even greater. iii) He has lost his mind. None of the explanations are reassuring.

This is the backdrop – or more precisely the entire stage – of Arctic cooperation. The Arctic Council, an international cooperation body that has been described as the most important in the North, is also an actor in this geopolitical theatre.

While the Arctic Council may not be on everyone’s lips, it is a central component in the patchwork of governance mechanisms in the North. The Kingdom of Denmark, with Greenland in the driver’s seat, is now leading the work of the Arctic Council. 

Given that one member state is waging a war against a neighbouring country that violates international law and another that threatens to annex an ally, this exercise is not simple. 

The Arctic Council is synonymous with international cooperation and the pursuit of common solutions to shared problems. The Council is important for several reasons.

 Perhaps the best known of these is that the Council serves as a forum in which indigenous peoples participate on an equal footing with the Arctic states and that the working groups in the Council are the most important providers of knowledge about opportunities and challenges in the North. 

This applies to everything from shipping to climate and from environmental toxins to the social conditions of the region’s residents. The Arctic Council also tells a story about cooperation and stability in the North and about common challenges and how states and the people of the North should meet them.

The Arctic Council is therefore important. It faces a challenge in that many are beginning to lose faith in its survival. 

The pause (and cautious start-up) after Russia’s invasion in 2022, the American strangulation of climate and environmental research and the geopoliticisation of Greenland and the Arctic have not made those who work for and in the Council and its working groups more optimistic. 

The researchers, interest groups and civil servants who make up the Arctic knowledge network are beginning to see a certain resignation. What we are doing has no effect or significance, and prospects for developing new initiatives are limited. The central question, therefore, is: What should be done, and why?

It is when the world is darkest that it is most important to fight for what you believe in. At a time in which international cooperation is under severe pressure, working extra hard for the values you stand for is crucial. The Arctic Council still serves as the multilateral glue in the North. Its erosion should not happen from within.

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Believes the Arctic Council will manage

Therefore, state authorities must support the Arctic Council both politically and financially. Moreover, it is crucial that those who work in and with the Arctic Council do not give up. The task is and will be demanding, and, at times, it may also feel pointless; however, there is simply no other alternative. 

In the past year, we have observed that several working groups have accomplished substantial work. These successes are being noticed and must not be lost in geopolitical noise. Thus, it is possible to make a difference now as well. This year, the Arctic Council will celebrate its 30th anniversary, with the event beginning in Tromsø at Arctic Frontiers. 

The message should be clear: International cooperation and knowledge should define the future of the Arctic.