politics
EU Approves Russian Gas Ban In Decisive Break with Moscow, Including Arctic LNG
"The European Union’s member states gave final approval to a law phasing out Russian gas imports by late 2027, a landmark move to sever energy ties with Moscow after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The measure passed despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia and tight voting margins."
The European Union formally adopted a regulation on Monday that will phase out imports of Russian natural gas, including both pipeline supplies and liquefied natural gas (LNG), by late 2027 in what the bloc called a decisive step toward energy autonomy.
The legislation, agreed on a reinforced qualified majority vote, overcomes objections from Hungary and Slovakia, both still reliant on Russian energy, while Bulgaria abstained. Hungary has indicated it will challenge the measure in the European Court of Justice.
Under the stepwise ban, imports of Russian LNG will be prohibited from the beginning of 2027, with pipeline gas imports to follow in the autumn of the same year. The LNG import ban primarily affects Russia’s Arctic project Yamal LNG. Currently the EU is the project’s largest customer buying around 75 percent of its production.
Despite efforts to reduce reliance on Moscow, the EU continued significant purchases of Russian fuel in 2025. Analysis shows the bloc spent about €7.2 billion on Russian LNG last year, largely from the Yamal LNG project, as buyers maximised imports before the ban takes effect.
New Arctic challenges for Russia
The now approved ban will have knock-on effects for Russian energy firms. Major operator Novatek, which has been exporting Arctic LNG to Europe, will need to redirect more than 15 million tonnes per annum of cargoes previously destined for the EU to buyers in Asia and other markets, complicating logistics and long-term planning.
The new measures apply to both new and existing contracts. Short-term Russian gas deals signed before June 17, 2025, must cease by 2026, while long-term contracts will be fully phased out by the deadlines next year. EU countries also must verify the origin of gas before entry and prepare national diversification plans by March 1 2026.
The regulation enters into force six weeks after publication, with transitional arrangements for existing contracts designed to smooth market impacts.
The regulation includes hefty penalties for violations. Individuals found in breach could face fines of at least €2.5 million, and companies face minimum penalties of €40 million or up to 3.5 per cent of their total worldwide annual turnover, potentially 300 per cent of the transaction value.
The law also forbids new contracts with Russian suppliers and strengthens monitoring and enforcement mechanisms across the bloc.
New overreliance on US LNG
Russian gas still accounted for a notable share of the EU energy mix in 2025, with imports estimated to make up about 13 per cent of total gas supplies, but down sharply from over 40 per cent before the Ukraine war.
The EU has diversified its gas supply away from Russia with expanded imports from other partners. Norway has become a leading supplier, providing nearly half of Germany’s imported gas flows in recent years, underscoring the bloc’s shift toward secure alternatives.
The shift has also seen LNG imports surge overall. The International Energy Agency projects Europe will import a record amount of LNG in 2026 as the continent compensates for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
The United States has also emerged as a major LNG supplier. By the end of 2025, U.S. sources accounted for a majority share of EU LNG imports, prompting analysts to warn that Europe risks replacing one dependency with another. A recent study found U.S. LNG could comprise 75–80 per cent of the EU’s LNG imports by 2030 if current trends continue, raising strategic concerns about overreliance on a single external supplier.