EU Imports All Available Yamal LNG While Moscow Warns of Asia Pivot

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker transporting cargo from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project suffered an explosion in the Mediterranean around 120 nautical miles southeast of Malta last week.

The vessel’s loss follows an apparent attack, marking the first known destruction of a vessel carrying Russian LNG since the start of the war in Ukraine.

The vessel, Arctic Metagaz, was part of the so-called Russian shadow fleet used to transport cargoes in violation of sanctions, primarily to buyers in China.

Valuable

The incident is significant because LNG carriers are among the most valuable vessels in global shipping and far less numerous than the aging oil tankers commonly used in Russia’s shadow fleet.

While Ukraine has targeted oil tankers linked to Russia in the past, particularly in the Black Sea, those vessels are often empty at the time of attack to reduce environmental risks.

In the case of Arctic Metagaz, the tanker was carrying a full cargo of liquefied natural gas when it sank.

That means the financial loss extends beyond the value of the vessel itself. Novatek, the majority owner of the Arctic LNG 2 project, also likely lost around $50 million worth of LNG cargo.

The sinking is particularly consequential for Arctic LNG 2 because of the project’s limited shipping capacity. The project currently has access to just 12 LNG carriers capable of transporting cargoes from the facility. Losing even one vessel significantly reduces the project’s export capacity and logistical flexibility.

Russian vessels are rerouting

The immediate impact of the incident appears to be a more cautious approach to shipping routes.

Within 48 hours of the attack, at least four other Russian shadow fleet LNG carriers began altering their routes away from the Mediterranean.

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The vessel Arctic Vostok turned south while sailing in the Indian Ocean, while Nova Energy performed a U-turn shortly before entering the Red Sea. Another carrier, Buran, passed the entrance to the Mediterranean at Gibraltar before continuing south along the west coast of Africa instead of entering the sea. Meanwhile Arctic Pioneer remained stationary near Port Said in Egypt, potentially awaiting instructions on whether it should proceed into the Mediterranean.

The movements suggest Moscow may be avoiding the Suez Canal and Mediterranean routes in favor of the much longer journey around southern Africa, at least temporarily.

EU buys all Yamal production

The developments come as European imports of Russian LNG have reached record levels.

Data analyzed by advocacy group Urgewald using shipping data from Kpler showed the European Union imported 100% of production from Russia’s Yamal LNG project in February.

That followed January, when EU countries imported 93% of the project’s output.

“In February, all Yamal deliveries went to the EU. Zero shipments went to China or Asia, compared with 4 Asia-bound cargoes in February 2025. This marks the first February since Yamal began operations in which every cargo was delivered to the EU,” the group said.

The figures highlight how EU member states continue to purchase large volumes of Russian LNG even as the bloc plans to ban the imports starting January 1, 2027.

France received the largest share of deliveries in February with nine cargoes, followed by Belgium with five and Spain with four, according to the data. The Netherlands took two deliveries while Portugal received one.

The debate around Russian LNG imports has become more complicated due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Will EU reconsider

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of LNG export facilities in Qatar have raised concerns about a tightening global gas market, particularly in Asia.

Norwegian Energy Minister Terje Aasland said the evolving geopolitical situation could force European policymakers to revisit the issue.

“The EU has been very clear that they want to liberate themselves from Russian oil and gas, but then the events of the last three-four days have also been difficult,” Aasland told a conference in Oslo last week, referring to the evolving Iran conflict.

“With the geopolitical situation we see now, I believe the debate will be revived,” he added.

An idle threat from Russia

Russia has sought to capitalize on those concerns.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow was considering redirecting LNG shipments away from Europe toward other markets.

Particular attention was paid to the issue of reorienting Russian gas supplies from Europe to more reliable and profitable markets, a government statement said.

“In accordance with the Russian President’s instructions, we addressed this issue today,” Novak said over the weekend. 

“We discussed in detail the current situation and the potential for gas rerouting. It was decided that some of the LNG currently supplied to Europe will be redirected to other markets where constructive, pragmatic relations are being built with our country.”

Logistical constraints

However, analysts say Russia faces significant logistical constraints in carrying out such a shift.

The country already faces an acute shortage of LNG shipping capacity, particularly ice-class carriers needed to serve Arctic projects.

Transporting LNG from Yamal to Europe represents the shortest route to market. Redirecting shipments to Asia outside the summer navigation season on the Northern Sea Route would require dozens of additional vessels.

Unlikely pivot

As a result, a large-scale pivot toward Asian markets is unlikely in the near term.

Still, Novak’s remarks appear aimed at highlighting potential supply risks for Europe at a time when global gas markets are already under pressure.

If the Strait of Hormuz closure continues for several weeks and extends into early summer – when Europe typically begins refilling its gas storage facilities – the European Commission could face growing political pressure from some member states to delay the planned Russian LNG import ban.