Yamal LNG Deliveries Could Drop 50 Percent After EU Import Ban, Study Indicates

Russia’s Novatek is heading toward a significant logistical crunch at its flagship Yamal LNG project, with exports potentially halving after the European Union closes its market to Russian LNG in 2027, according to a report by the Center for High North Logistics (CHNL).

The study estimates that shipments from Yamal LNG could fall from around 260 cargoes in 2025 to just 120–130 annually after the ban takes effect, highlighting the scale of disruption facing both the producer and its buyers.

The EU has historically been a cornerstone market for Yamal LNG due to its proximity and year-round accessibility. However, once imports are prohibited, Novatek will be forced to redirect roughly 75% of its volumes previously destined for Europe toward Asia, requiring significantly longer voyages and more complex logistics.

A key constraint is the limited availability of ice-class liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. Yamal LNG relies on a fleet of Arc7 vessels designed to navigate Arctic ice, but only about 14 such ships are currently available.

These vessels are critical for transporting cargoes along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) or to transshipment hubs, where LNG is transferred to conventional carriers.

With Europe off limits, Novatek will need to rely more heavily on ship-to-ship transfers, increasing demand for conventional LNG carriers and likely prompting the company to seek additional tonnage to maintain throughput.

Industry observers say this could involve acquiring or chartering a substantial number of standard LNG carriers to support transshipment operations. Analysts previously suggested the company may need between 30-40 LNG tankers to maintain exports at current levels. 

The company may also expand infrastructure in Asia, including the potential addition of a floating storage unit (FSU) in the Far East to streamline summer deliveries via the NSR. Such a move would help optimize seasonal flows but would not fully offset winter constraints.

Winter deliveries

Winter navigation along the NSR remains particularly challenging. While Novatek has previously conducted limited winter voyages to Asia, these have been rare and carried elevated risks. Harsh ice conditions increase the likelihood of damage to vessel hulls and propulsion systems.

Given the small size of the Arc7 fleet and the risks involved, Novatek may be reluctant to expand winter NSR shipments significantly, further limiting export capacity.

EU buying all cargoes

At the same time, the report underscores how European buyers are maximizing imports ahead of the ban. LNG deliveries from Yamal to Europe increased between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, with all Yamal cargoes in early 2026 reportedly heading to European terminals.

“Europe received 60 voyages in Q1 2025 and 70 voyages in Q1 2026. 100% of all shipments in January, February, and March 2026 were directed to Europe,” the CHNL concludes.

This surge indicates that EU importers are securing as much supply as possible before restrictions take effect, even as policymakers prepare to eliminate Russian LNG from the bloc’s energy mix.

Will EU and Novatek adapt?

The impending cutoff presents a dual shock. For Europe, replacing more than 15 million tonnes per year of Yamal LNG will require sourcing alternative supplies in an already tight global market with the ongoing Hormuz supply disruption.

For Novatek, the challenge lies in rapidly reconfiguring logistics to serve distant Asian customers with limited specialized shipping.

The CHNL analysis concludes that without a significant expansion in both ice-class and conventional LNG carrier capacity, as well as additional transshipment infrastructure, Yamal LNG exports are likely to contract sharply in 2027.

“Without additional ice‑class vessels, expanded transshipment capacity, or redesigned logistics schemes, the current fleet will not be able to support export volumes comparable to previous years,” the report reads.