When Russia Attacked Svalbard - On Defence Cooperation Seen From Finland

A 'what-if' scenario, it turned out upon closer study, but still a talking point around Finnish breakfast tables on a perfectly ordinary Thursday in April.

Interesting, in addition to being somewhat eye-catching, because one of the hottest defence policy incantations at the moment, after Sweden and Finland joined Nato, is the Nordic defence cooperation.

Seen from Finland

So how is the cooperation really doing, right now, seen from Finland where I am located?

It is constantly emphasised how important and crucial this is for security in the north.

Recently, a couple of days ago, Thomas Bjerregård, deputy commander in the Northern military region here in the newspaper, said it was crucial. - We cannot do this alone, he said.

Norway's Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said something similar during the High North Dialogue conference, about the security policy significance of Finland and Sweden joining Nato. A significant strengthening of security in the north, he called it.

We often report in High North News about joint military exercises across the borders between the three countries in the north. But how coordinated are we really?

The former Finnish foreign minister, Pär Stenbäck, chose to highlight some of the differences in a lecture. The Nordic region as a whole has five different currencies, while only three out of five countries are members of the EU.

But there are more differences.

Very different

There are also language barriers that are not erased in a war. Finnish is one of the world's most complicated languages, with 16 cases compared to none in Norway. No one learns Finnish. The Arctic football team Bodø/Glimt's successful coach has repeatedly emphasised the importance of having players who understand Norwegian.

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Generals need a common language to make cooperation work. Only five percent of Finns speak Swedish. English is a foreign language in all Nordic countries.

In Finland, both the population and the defence forces are mostly concentrated in the area around the capital Helsinki. 80 percent to be exact. This is where all the shelters are that we constantly compare the lack of the same in Norway with.

Finnish history is a story that it is from Karelia that Russian attacks come, while in Norway we talk about defending Norway farthest in the north.

We have 475,000 people living in the north, compared to just over 70,000 in northern Finland.

Where we have a vibrant coast with an important business sector, the Finns in the north live off tourism and Santa Claus. There are also no shelters there.

Loan-financed

Perhaps the biggest difference is state finances. What is supposed to finance the increased Finnish defence ambitions.

Finland was at the top in defence spending when the country joined Nato. In practice, the only country that already spent more than two percent of gross domestic product on defence. Russia's war against Ukraine has increased Nato's joint ambitions to five percent.

It will be difficult, if not impossible, for a country that has not had economic growth in recent years. The Finnish welfare model, the same as in Norway, has long been loan-financed. Maintaining the Finnish Defence eats up an ever larger part of, for example, the health sector. Increasing it will require dramatic cuts.

The queues outside the food stations are already long.

In addition, democracy is challenged with demands for greater intervention in personal freedom to limit hybrid warfare from the Russian side.

We know little

The truth is that we know little about Finland, that we lack experience in cooperating with Finland, and that Finland in no way resembles Norway.

Nor when it comes to decision-making processes.

I spent three months in Finland in the winter of 2022, after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It was the same amount of time it took Finland to go from being neutral to applying for NATO membership.

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In Norway, we have been discussing EU membership since the early 70s without any consequence other than that we hardly dare to discuss it.

The business cooperation between Norway and Finland in the north, which we have talked about for decades, is completely at a standstill. It is also not easy to achieve a business collaboration with Santa Claus. Or the tourism industry, which is the dominant industry in northern Finland.

Now defence cooperation is the new mantra.

How did the war end?

And by all means, there is much that can be developed here.

But in the same way that there are increasing demands for the oil nation Norway to take greater responsibility for the defence of Ukraine, it is only a matter of time before the same demand is raised when it comes to the defence of the Nordics in the north.

So you might be wondering how Russia's attack on NATO in Svalbard on Christmas Eve 2029 went?

For now, the Finnish defence minister is sitting around the table in the situation room wondering how to respond to the attack.

Silent, as only Finnish men can be.