politics
Political scientist Samu Paukkunen:
Warns of Cracks in The Nordic Front Against Russia
Kirkenes (High North News): “The Nordics need a united front against Russia”, says political scientist Samu Paukkunen. He says Russia is an expert at finding division and using it against their enemies.
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At the Kirkenes Conference in Finnmark, Northern Norway, the Ukrainian ambassador to Norway warned the Nordics against any goodwill towards Russia.
Knowing firsthand just how aggressive Vladimir Putin is, he described how Ukraine and Russia were once partners in trade, culture and business.
“Right now, we are paying the price of years of successful and profitable cooperation between Ukraine and Russia”, said ambassador Oleksiy Gavrysh during a panel at the conference.
“As all favors returns from Russia as drones and missiles.”
Warns of cracks
The annual Kirkenes Conference takes place in Kirkenes, only a few kilometers from the Russian border.
I warn against the division
During the panel, deputy director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), Samu Paukkunen, also warned the Nordics against cracks in the front towards Russia.
You say the Nordics must be united in the way we confront Russia. Can you elaborate on that?
“Yes, I warn against the division that might happen if we don't have a united front between the Nordics. Russia is extremely efficient in detecting and making use of different policies, finding discrepancies and sizable differences within the Nordic countries foreign policies or how they address Russia”, Paukkunen says to High North News as we meet him after his panel.
"We are the enemy"
He says that any division is easily picked up on by Russia.
“That is their strategy, and if we are not ready for this, we end up in a bad situation. We need to understand that Russia has a completely different environment and culture than the Nordics.”
The Finnish political researcher says it is especially important to understand how Russia sees the west versus how we see ourselves.
“We do not see ourself as anyone’s enemies, but Russia does. We really need to understand the difference in thinking.”
Talk more
As Ukraine is now, Finland was once at war with Russia, or the Soviet Union. The Winter War began with a Soviet invasion of Finland on 30 November 1939, three months after the outbreak of World War II, and ended three and a half months later with the Moscow Peace Treaty on 13 March 1940.
Finland was forced to cede roughly 10% of its land.
What can Finland teach Norway and Sweden when it comes to Russia?
“We just have to talk more. The cooperation is there, but Russia is such a delicate question when it comes to national interests. For Norway it is the fisheries and the border that's still open. For Finland it's the proximity of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad.”
Need for leadership
How can the Nordics close the gaps?
“What Europe is missing is unity in the way we address Russia”, says Paukkunen.
“We have been successful so far when it comes to sanctions and policies, but there's movement underneath as many are tired of the war. There is a need for leadership, and it should come from the Nordics, because that would be a leadership that is understood in a European broader context.”
Fast track
How does Finland view Norway’s open border to Russia?
“It's not something that is addressed in public. Estonia has an open border and people that want to cross the borders use that one”, says Samu Paukkonen.
Still, he calls for a higher level of coordination needed between the Nordic countries. A fast track to better alignment to face the gravity of the situation.
“Otherwise, there are going to be cracks there.”
A disservice
For decades, Norway practiced a self-imposed restriction on allied military activity east of the 24th parallel, which runs east of Hammerfest. The background to the restrictions has been Norway's desire to limit NATO's military presence near the border with Russia, not to poke the bear.
I call it terrorist communization
What is your view on this deal Norway has had with Russia?
“We are doing ourselves a disservice if we are holding back or abiding by the wishes of Russia. These rules never worked with Russia, and now we have the chance to build the whole of the Nordics as one coherent defensive area”, says Paukkunen.
He says it's not about the Nordics militarizing the border. That's already done by Russia.
“We should just make sure we are prepared, and do what is needed so there will never be situation where Russia see weakness in us and exploit it.”
Good sign
Is the fact that we have different border policies one of the cracks you refer to, that Russia could exploit?
“Exactly.”
Norway has been the home of the Barents cooperation and people on both side of the border took part in cross-border cooperation in trade and culture for years.
But after the war, the Nordics realized the need to focus on cooperation with each other instead.
Can the war be used as an opportunity for more Nordic unity?
“Nordic cooperation is a constant discussion in Finland. Norway have never been so visible in the Finnish national security policy discussions. The bonds are tight in the Nordic community, as well as between the Arctic seven. There's been more coming together, and that is a good sign, especially because this includes the US”, says the Finnish researcher.
Broken by Russia
How do we replace the Barents cooperation that is now lost?
“I don't believe that we are going to return to the Arctic cooperations we had anytime soon. Nor do I believe that the Arctic Council will resume to the same duties and mindset that we had before this”, Paukkunen says.
That part is broken by Russia.
“Let's be honest. Russia broke all the rules. And the ones it did not break, it bent."
Hard truth
It is this part that Samu Paukkunen really need the Nordics to understand. What is lost, might be lost forever.
“This need to hit hard. We are not dealing with a logical or friendly neighbor. We are dealing with a country that sees us as the enemy. Given the opportunity, there is no telling what actions Russia would take against us”, he says, agreeing with the Ukrainian ambassador.
“We need to close the gaps and work with Ukraine.”
As ambassador Oleksiy Gavrysh put it; Russia disrespects all rules, borders international and national laws.
“I call it terrorist communization because they use any kind of source to include resources into their war machine. And right now, we are paying the price.”
