"Europe’s Future Will be Decided in Ukraine"

"What people mistakenly worry about is whether Ukraine will be rebuilt. Oh, Ukraine will be rebuilt. The question is who will do the rebuilding".

The words belong to the Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jonatan Vseviov. When HNN meet him in Kirkenes, not far from the Norwegian border to Russia, he has spent the morning on a boat on the Pasvik river that marks the border in Norway and Russia's Arctic region.

"We actually went to Russia today," shared the State Secretary at the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, Evind Vad Petersson (Labor), from the stage at the Kirkenes Conference moments before. He hosted the Estonian Secretary of State on the field trip.

Petersson said it was just for a minute as the boat got a little bit too far east.

Open borders

The Estonian diplomat sits down with HNN after his speech to participants at the Kirkenes Conference, asking for coffee with milk. So far, he is enjoying his time in Norway.

Estonia, like Norway, has kept its border with Russia partially open. Finland has closed their borders for passenger traffic. That means the Estonian border is the nearest crossing point for anyone in Finland who wishes to travel to Russia.

How does that affect Estonia?

"It's under our control, and Finland has sent the border police to make sure that their know-how is included in border security. All in all, the number of people crossing the border has gone down significantly. There is no vehicular traffic in the northeast of our border, so only pedestrians can cross there," says Vseviov.

He adds that the border crossings are minor compared to what was once a "very intense cross-border activity."

Occupied by the Soviet

As a country that was occupied by the Soviet Union for 50 years, Estonia knows and remembers the mass deportations, executions, and political suppression all too well.

Vseviov says Europe needs to keep the pressure on Putin.

"We need to convince Russia to end its war of aggression. And for that to happen, we have to increase pressure and the cost of war, and at the same time help Ukraine as best we can."

He is convinced this is the fastest way to make Russia abandon the idea of the Russian Empire.

"We have to make Russia reassess its strategy and policy vis-a-vis Ukraine and Europe and get them to change course and end their aggression."

The future of Europe

You say the future of Europe is decided in Ukraine. What does that mean for the European Arctic?

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"Whether we have a Europe that can defend the core principles of life, territorial integrity and sovereignty, or not, will be decided by the outcome in Ukraine," says the Secretary General.

The diplomat paints a gloomy picture of an alternative, dystopian Europe:

"Imagine the might of Ukraine under Russian rule. We are talking about the whole of Ukraine's military industrial capabilities integrated into the Russian war machine. Threatening not just the north or the northeast in Estonia, but also sitting on the border of Poland."

He pauses, as if to let the image sink in.

Or;

"A a free Ukraine as part of an integrated European economic, political, and military structure, which would be the best antidote to the resurgence of Russian imperialism," Jonatan Vseviov says.

 These are the two different futures that Vseviov sees as possible depending on the outcome of the war.

And these two alternative futures are different enough to matter for all of Europe. Not just for the Eastern or Central Europeans, and obviously not just for the Ukrainians, he explains.

It also includes the Arctic.

Saved by NATO and the EU

He compares what is happening in Ukraine to what took place in Estonia in the 1990s and 2000s.

"We regained our independence in 1991, then made the journey from having nothing to joining NATO and the EU, building free market economies and a rule of law-based democracy."

It is clear that the EU and NATO memberships made these reforms possible.

"They helped save my country."

Chaos

The alternative would be chaos.

"The nations that made this journey, all of the Central and Eastern European countries, together make up roughly 80 or 90 million people. Had there been no memberships or had that policy failed, those millions of Europeans would be living in chaos today," says Vseviov.

It's the gray areas that Europe has to watch out for.

"War and instability in Europe have emanated from gray areas between either Europe or the Russian Empire. Had our policy not existed or failed, it would have been a catastrophe for us."

The fate of Europe

He says the situation in Ukraine will be similar. Ukraine will either make the journey successfully or not.

"Will Ukraine end up under rule of law-based free market regulations or some other rules prevalent in Russia? Ukraine will play a role in European politics. The question is on which side."

Vseviov states that Russia cannot be a successful land-based empire in Europe without controlling Ukraine, but that this is Putins chance to normalize Russias relationship with Europe.

"But only if Russia ceases to aspire for an empire that dominates its neighbors," Vseviov explains. The war in Ukraine, in my opinion, will decide the fate of Europe."

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Border-boating

Tell me about your trip to the Russian border in Kirkenes with Norwegian state secretary Eivind Vad Petersson. Why did you go there?

"It was very exciting. We went because it's always good to see the country you travel to and talk to the people who actually guard the border. In many cases, they are very young, but at the same time, they are confident and professional."

The similarities between the Estonian and Norwegian border to Russia struck the diplomat.

"The border is in a river in our northeast. The way Russian officials are behaving on the other side is also fairly similar."

Positive effects

Almost overnight, Russia's war of aggression resulted in a strategic shift that has affected both the High North and the Baltic Sea region; Finland and Sweden's NATO membership.

"It's been fascinating. And what an enormous positive effect Finland and Sweden joining NATO had on the security and strategic situation up here in the High North."

He compares it to the enormous positive effect the new NATO membership has had in the Baltic Sea region.

Reason for optimism

What do you think will happen in Ukraine?

"There's every reason to be optimistic. Eventually, it will not be about land. It will be about whether we can successfully convince Russia to reassess its strategy and give up on the idea of controlling Ukraine," Vseviov says, finishing his coffee.

 "Or whether the Russians succeed in convincing us to give up our idea of Europe. It's one or the other."

"But we’re now seeing signs of hope in Ukraine, and we detect a sense of desperation and cynicism in Russia. I believe that the attempt to turn back time will fail again. It will fail as it failed in 1991," says the Estonian diplomat.

Self harm

He just hopes that Russia realizes sooner rather than later that what it's doing is not only harmful for Europe and Ukraine, but also harmful to Russia itself.

"No one has killed more Russians than Vladimir Putin in the 21st century. It's a tragedy, and the sooner we succeed in convincing Russia that it's better for them to build a normal relationship with their neighbors, the better off all will be."

Are you hopeful?

"I'm cautiously optimistic, let's put it that way. But wars are unpredictable, and they're not over until they're over. So, I would not want to be in a position six months or one year from today, looking back and thinking that there were things that we should have done."

Do too much

Vseviov would rather do too much than regret not doing enough.

"We should do the extra things today. Double or triple what we think is necessary. It’s better than to blame ourselves for not contributing enough money towards defense or assistance towards Ukraine. What we're talking about right now is pocket money. We're spending a few percent of our GDP on all forms of assistance for Ukraine. When you look at historical proportions, this really isn't much compared to what is at stake," he says firmly.

As we wander outside in the Arctic spring air to take pictures, Jonatan Vseviov take a deep breath and looks out to the Kirkenes fjord. Just 100 kilometers to the east, Vladimir Putin is storing his nuclear fist.

That is why he is here, in Norway's far east. To ensure that unity among the Baltic Sea and the Northern European region is growing ever stronger.